Individual Game Analysis
1 Game Profile
1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG
This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.
Published | ID | Name | Type | UserRatings | Average | GeekRating | Weight |
2022 | Current | 73 | 8.89 | 5.54 | 2.67 | ||
Estimated | 300 | 7.84 | 5.83 | 2.94 |
To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.
1.2 Game Description
Description |
Nova Aetas: Renaissance is a cooperative tactical boardgame set in a fantastic and dark Italian Renaissance. Set in the Italian Renaissance, this game will guide you through a fantastic, mythical campaign based upon the historic events of the war between Rome and Venice in the early 1500s. Inspired by classic Japanese tactical RPGs such as 'Final Fantasy Tactics' and 'Tactics Ogre', in Nova Aetas you will battle enemies controlled by a sophisticated Artificial Intelligence. With every challenge you will be presented with meaningful choices that will change the course of game events. Nova Aetas will captivate you with its high detailed miniatures and its high quality components. |
1.3 Game Information
Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.
Published | ID | Name | Publisher(s) | Designer(s) | Artist(s) | Categories | Families | Mechanics |
2022 | Ludus Magnus Studio | Luca Bernardini | Fernando Armentano | Adventure | Admin: Better Description Needed! | Action Points | ||
Andrea Colletti | Antonio De Luca | Fantasy | Admin: Upcoming Releases | Cooperative Game | ||||
Paolo Scippo | Miniatures | Category: Dungeon Crawler | Dice Rolling | |||||
Giovanni Pirrotta | Renaissance | Country: Italy | Grid Movement | |||||
Simone de Paolis | Crowdfunding: Kickstarter | Modular Board | ||||||
Tommaso Incecchi | Setting: Nova Aetas Chronicles | Role Playing | ||||||
Theme: Alternate History | Storytelling | |||||||
Team-Based Game | ||||||||
Time Track | ||||||||
Variable Player Powers | ||||||||
For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/311823
1.4 Explaining Predictions
For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.
2 Finding Similar Games
What games are similar to Nova Aetas Renaissance? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Nova Aetas Renaissance. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.
This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).
Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.
2.1 Most Similar Games
The table below displays games with the most similar data to Nova Aetas Renaissance. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Similarity | GeekRating | Average | Weight | UserRatings |
-- | 2022 | 1.00 | 5.54 | 8.89 | 2.94 | 73 | ||
1 | 2017 | 0.96 | 6.46 | 7.12 | 2.54 | 3,274 | ||
2 | 2018 | 0.93 | 6.96 | 7.74 | 2.86 | 3,978 | ||
3 | 2013 | 0.93 | 5.80 | 6.80 | 2.42 | 561 | ||
4 | 2020 | 0.93 | 5.81 | 6.73 | 1.80 | 647 | ||
5 | 2016 | 0.91 | 5.61 | 7.32 | 3.50 | 147 | ||
6 | 2004 | 0.91 | 6.84 | 7.05 | 2.39 | 40,748 | ||
7 | 2004 | 0.90 | 5.89 | 6.80 | 3.04 | 834 | ||
8 | 2019 | 0.90 | 6.96 | 8.80 | 4.02 | 1,868 | ||
9 | 2018 | 0.90 | 5.72 | 7.64 | 3.60 | 391 | ||
10 | 2017 | 0.90 | 5.74 | 7.91 | 3.67 | 264 | ||
11 | 2020 | 0.89 | 5.54 | 7.23 | 2.71 | 79 | ||
12 | 2016 | 0.89 | 6.16 | 7.46 | 2.35 | 1,174 | ||
13 | 2017 | 0.88 | 5.87 | 7.24 | 3.44 | 626 | ||
14 | 2017 | 0.88 | 6.47 | 7.78 | 3.67 | 1,765 | ||
15 | 2019 | 0.88 | 5.52 | 6.55 | 2.33 | 41 | ||
16 | 2017 | 0.87 | 5.57 | 6.66 | 2.50 | 132 | ||
17 | 2018 | 0.87 | 6.09 | 7.66 | 2.93 | 793 | ||
18 | 2005 | 0.87 | 5.50 | 8.32 | 1.83 | 41 | ||
19 | 2005 | 0.87 | 5.51 | 8.80 | 1.73 | 45 | ||
20 | 1993 | 0.87 | 5.51 | 6.07 | 1.25 | 47 | ||
21 | 2020 | Shadows of Brimstone: City of the Ancients (Revised Edition) | 0.86 | 5.60 | 8.73 | 73 | ||
22 | 2018 | 0.86 | 5.70 | 7.06 | 1.85 | 388 | ||
23 | 2017 | 0.86 | 5.57 | 7.13 | 4.00 | 104 | ||
24 | 2014 | 0.86 | 6.83 | 8.04 | 3.39 | 2,302 | ||
25 | 2020 | 0.86 | 5.61 | 8.74 | 4.00 | 68 |
Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.
2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games
What games are similar to Nova Aetas Renaissance while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Score | Similarity | GeekRating | Average | Weight | UserRatings |
-- | 2022 | 5.54 | 1.00 | 5.54 | 8.89 | 2.94 | 73 | ||
1 | 2018 | 6.46 | 0.93 | 6.96 | 7.74 | 2.86 | 3,978 | ||
2 | 2019 | 6.27 | 0.90 | 6.96 | 8.80 | 4.02 | 1,868 | ||
3 | 2017 | 6.20 | 0.96 | 6.46 | 7.12 | 2.54 | 3,274 | ||
4 | 2004 | 6.20 | 0.91 | 6.84 | 7.05 | 2.39 | 40,748 | ||
5 | 2016 | 6.09 | 0.78 | 7.77 | 8.01 | 2.67 | 29,837 | ||
6 | 2017 | 5.97 | 0.84 | 7.07 | 7.97 | 4.07 | 4,242 | ||
7 | 2014 | 5.96 | 0.85 | 6.98 | 7.96 | 3.35 | 3,629 | ||
8 | 2012 | 5.90 | 0.84 | 7.04 | 7.27 | 2.72 | 17,977 | ||
9 | 2014 | 5.88 | 0.86 | 6.83 | 8.04 | 3.39 | 2,302 | ||
10 | 2011 | 5.81 | 0.83 | 6.98 | 7.28 | 3.24 | 13,161 | ||
11 | 2017 | 5.71 | 0.88 | 6.47 | 7.78 | 3.67 | 1,765 | ||
12 | 2011 | 5.66 | 0.84 | 6.73 | 7.23 | 2.58 | 5,939 | ||
13 | 2005 | 5.62 | 0.80 | 6.98 | 7.29 | 3.34 | 11,516 | ||
14 | 2011 | 5.60 | 0.84 | 6.66 | 7.12 | 2.61 | 6,184 | ||
15 | 2010 | 5.59 | 0.84 | 6.65 | 6.98 | 2.51 | 8,791 | ||
16 | 2017 | 5.54 | 0.85 | 6.50 | 6.94 | 2.99 | 6,374 | ||
17 | 2018 | 5.48 | 0.79 | 6.97 | 7.51 | 2.41 | 5,712 | ||
18 | 2016 | 5.46 | 0.89 | 6.16 | 7.46 | 2.35 | 1,174 | ||
19 | 2019 | 5.43 | 0.82 | 6.63 | 7.87 | 2.39 | 1,996 | ||
20 | 2013 | 5.43 | 0.80 | 6.76 | 7.38 | 2.68 | 4,472 | ||
21 | 2015 | 5.41 | 0.85 | 6.37 | 7.40 | 2.47 | 1,854 | ||
22 | 2018 | 5.40 | 0.81 | 6.64 | 7.65 | 3.18 | 2,295 | ||
23 | 2013 | 5.38 | 0.93 | 5.80 | 6.80 | 2.42 | 561 | ||
24 | 2020 | 5.38 | 0.93 | 5.81 | 6.73 | 1.80 | 647 | ||
25 | 1995 | 5.36 | 0.82 | 6.55 | 7.49 | 2.69 | 2,449 |
2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?
I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.
2.3.1 Plotting All Games
The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.
2.3.2 Game Profiles
Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.
2.3.3 Examining Components
What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.
